Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
